Wednesday 20 May 2015

Intrinsic calculation example

1) Total EPS
Year
Year
EPS
1
2008
The average EPS growth rate is 10%,and the EPS in year 2008 is RM2.20
2
2009
RM2.20x1.1=2.42
3
2010
RM2.42,1.1=2.66
4
2011
RM2.66x1.1=2.93
5
2012
RM2.93x1.1=3.22
6
2013
RM3.22x1.1=3.54
7
2014
RM3.54x1.1=3.89
8
2015
RM3.89x1.1=4.28
9
2016
RM4.28x1.1=4.71
10
2017
RM4.71x1.1=5.18

Total EPS
RM35.03

2) Let's say the average PE for the past 10 years is 13
Expected price in 2018   = RM5.18 x 13
                                        = RM67.34

3) Total dividends (for the ten years)
Total dividends    = Total EPS x Average dividend payout
                             = RM35.03 x 20%
                             = RM7.01

4) Total returns
Total returns,R  = Expected price in 11th year + total dividend
                          = RM67.34 + RM7.01
                          = RM74.35




5) Intrinsic value
Using equation R= ar(n-1)
R = Total returns
a = Intrinsic value of the share
r = Growth rate, let's say 15%,hence 1.15
n = Year n, in this case, the 11th year, so n= 11

Intrinsic value of the share
R = arn-1
74.35     = a 1.15 11-1
a              = RM18.38

If the current stock price is RM13, so it is worth to BUY.
Anyway, this is just 1 of the method for stock valuation, you might refer to other method as well, happy trading:-)


3 comments:

  1. Thanks for sharing. Can I know where to get the info for 10years PE average, average dividend payout and growth rate?

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    Replies
    1. Hi there :)

      Good day to you.

      You may check it out here http://www.klse.my/

      Thanks.

      Warmest regards,
      Imation.

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